“资源诅咒”的实证分析及破解

自然禀赋与一些国家或地区的经济增长之间存在显著的负相关关系,由此形成所谓的"资源诅咒"效应.从中心一外围论、贸易条件恶化论、荷兰病到资源诅咒等也均揭示出资源禀赋与经济发展之间的悖论.以此现实问题为背景,深入讨论了资源诅咒的成因及破解途径.     

个人信用体系在消费信贷中的应用

消费信贷在我国发展至今,虽已取得一定的成绩,但是与西方发达国家水平相差甚远,其中的问题主要在于我国个人信用评价研究起步晚,缺乏国内统一的个人信用信息库以及完善的信用评价体系。消费信贷的发展是对国家经济有着巨大推动能力的,为使我国经济快速稳定的增长,构建适合我国国情的个人信用信息库和个人信用评价体系便成为当务之急。     

Joint Tests of Signaling and Income Smoothing through Bank Loan Loss Provisions*

We examine whether and how managers use loan loss provisions to smooth income and to signal their private information about their banks' future prospects. Our paper highlights that the use of the loan loss provision to accomplish more than one objective gives rise to situation‐specific costs and benefits of manipulating the provision up or down. We hypothesize that relatively undervalued banks have greater incentives to signal their future prospects than fairly valued banks and that banks' incentives to smooth intensify as premanaged earnings deviate from norms. On the basis of these conjectures, we categorize sample banks into subgroups that are predicted to use loan loss provisions consistent with their situation‐specific incentives. This allows us to refine the research methods used in prior research to examine heterogeneous incentives. While we find evidence consistent with the use of loan loss provisions to smooth earnings, particularly when premanaged earnings are extreme, our evidence on signaling is less consistent. In particular, our signaling results depend on the introduction of an interaction term that has not been used in prior research. We also document that the intensity of smoothing (signaling) is not uniform across the sample. In addition to being a function of the incentive to smooth (signal), it also is a function of the incentive to signal (smooth).     

关于地勘单位实行资本经营的探讨

地勘单位实行资本经营,是抵御各种竞争压力、进行产业结构调整、实现规模经营和技术积累、开拓市场、突破行业壁垒的必然选择。地勘单位实现资本经营要抓好经营理念、经营模式、经营重心和运营体系等四个关键节点;地勘单位实现融资有五个主要渠道:争取政府补贴、争取合作经营、实行直接并购、进行同业合并、适时搞好重组。地勘单位实行资本经营中应注意的四个方面:①对自身实力的正确估计;②谨防企业文化冲突;③建立健全风险防控机制;④争取优惠政策的支持。     

Experience curve models in the electricity supply industry

There has been much controversy over the use of the Experience Curve for forecasting purposes. The Experience Curve model has been criticised both on theoretical grounds and because of the practical problems of using it. An alternative model of experience effects due to Towill has certain attractions from the standpoint of theory. However, a rather deeper question is whether experience curve type models produce superior forecasts to those derived using extrapolative techniques.This paper examines these questions in the context of three time series taken from the electricity supply industry, viz: average thermal efficiency; works costs; and price of electricity. The two latter series require price deflation. Both the implied GDP consumption deflator, and a wholesale price index for fuel and electricity were used for this purpose. It is argued that because of the absence of substitutes and of the effects of competition, along with the high quality of data available on the electricity supply industry, these three series provide a favourable test of the experience curve approach to forecasting. The two experience curves performed on the whole markedly worse than the simpler extrapolative methods on the two financial series examined. For the average thermal efficiency series the Towill model and the Experience Curve model marginally outperformed the extrapolative methods.Overall, there was little support for using either the Experience Curve or Towill models. These are obviously more difficult to use than simple univariate models and do not provide significantly better forecasts. Moreover, the Towill model gave rise to considerable estimation and specification problems with the data used here.     

商业性地质：融资瓶颈须打破

我国公益性地质工作和商业性地质工作分开运行、分头并进的格局已经基本形成,与此同时,资金短缺成为我国商业性地质工作,特别是风险勘查阶段面临的突出问题。目前商业性地质工作的重中之重,是必须抓住矿产勘查风险资本的本质,全方位多途径地筹集风险资本,冲破融资瓶颈。     

人民币汇率波动与收入不平等:影响渠道及应对

本文基于2006—2018年我国28个省份的省级面板数据,探讨了人民币汇率波动对收入不平等产生的影响以及影响渠道。研究结果表明,人民币汇率波动的增加会通过外商直接投资渠道与就业渠道扩大收入不平等。因此,在有序推进人民币汇率市场化、人民币汇率波动逐渐增加的背景下,应稳步推进经济发展与扩大就业,促进外汇市场的发展与完善,加强劳动力市场的建设,完善失业人员培训保障机制,不断提升经济开放程度及教育水平,以避免人民币汇率波动对收入不平等的负面影响。     

住房财富对中国城镇家庭消费的影响

在构建以国内大循环为主体,国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局下,把握扩大内需这一战略基点,激发居民消费潜力,是推动经济高质量发展的关键之一。住房已经成为中国家庭财富的重要组成部分,一方面可通过财富效应促进家庭消费,另一方面也可能由于“房奴效应”降低家庭消费。因此,住房财富对家庭消费的影响方向并不确定。本文基于2013-2019年中国家庭金融调查数据,研究了住房财富对家庭消费的影响,并检验了住房财富影响家庭消费的可能渠道。研究发现,住房财富对城镇家庭消费有显著促进作用,并显著改善了家庭消费结构,住房资产具有财富效应。进一步研究发现,住房财富能够缓解流动性约束,从而提高家庭消费水平。异质性分析表明,住房财富对不同类型的消费具有不同的促进作用,不同地区和拥有住房数量的差别均会对住房财富产生不同影响。根据本文研究,在控制风险的前提下,可发挥既有住房财富对平滑家庭消费的积极作用,促进家庭消费增长,改善家庭消费结构,进一步推进家庭消费升级。     

Do Farmers' Market and Specialty Food Store Customers Differ in the Effects of Perceived Utilitarian and Hedonic Shopping Values?

This study explored differences in the effects of perceived utilitarian and hedonic shopping values on customer satisfaction for the two separate groups of the agricultural product marketing channel: farmers' markets and specialty food stores. Empirical data were collected from customers of agricultural product retailers located in Taiwan (N = 412). The results show that different agricultural product marketing channels provide different values to their customers. Farmers' market customers experience a greater hedonic value, and specialty food store customers experience a greater utilitarian value. In addition, the perceived utilitarian and hedonic shopping values of farmers' market customers are more highly positively associated with customer satisfaction than are those of specialty food store customers.     

Interacting effects of uncertainties and institutional forces on information sharing in marketing channels

Marketing channel members in China face difficulties created by market uncertainty and opportunistic costs resulting from behavioral uncertainty, both of which undermine channel performance. In this article, we argue that channel members can use information sharing to maintain channel performance under uncertain circumstances. With empirical data from China, we develop and test a theoretical framework which explores the effects of market uncertainty and contractual commitment on information sharing and supplier operational performance. Moreover, we also find that regulatory protection moderates the relationship between market uncertainty and information sharing. Normative and cognitive protection moderates the relationship between contractual commitment and information sharing. Indeed, information sharing serves as a mediator between uncertainties and supplier operational performance. Consequently, Chinese channel managers are advised to increase the use of more information sharing to counter market and behavioral uncertainties in marketing channels.